This massive iceberg drifts off the coast of Macquarie Island south of Australia, promising tourists and beach-goers an amazing sight should it drift closer. Scientists expect the iceberg to slowly shrink and break apart in warmer ocean waters.

Large ice caps at the poles often shed large iceburgs every year, but rarely does such a large iceburg drift so near land, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.  This particular iceberg is believed to be a remnant of a larger sheet that was shed by the Ross Sea Ice shelf nearly 10 years ago.

This satellite photograph shows large icebergs calving from the larger antarctic ice sheet at the edge of the south pole.

The group of icebergs were thought to be heading to New Zealand but have now been blown off course.  That has not stopped a group of Australians who are determined to cash-in by trying to set up a floating bar on one of the icebergs.

The iceberg that has drifted toward Macquarie Island has taken a long path to get there. While it is proving quite a sight for islanders, scientists expect it to slowly shrink and break up in warmer ocean waters as the southern hemisphere summer looms.

The Australian Meteorology Bureau went as far as issuing a shipping alert late last week as a massive iceberg was drifting within 1000 miles of the southwestern coast of the country. This followed New Zealand’s similar alerts late last month when a slew of icebergs headed toward South Island, New Zealand.  Those have since drifted away from land.

A massive iceberg drifts off the southern coast of Australia, promising tourists and beach-goers an amazing sight should it drift closer. Scientists expect the iceberg to slowly shrink and break apart in warmer ocean waters.

The largest iceberg is 12 miles long and 5 miles wide.  It is slowly drifting northeast toward Western Australia state.

Like others that have come before it, it is expected that this iceberg will break up as it enters warmer ocean waters.  Such events are not entirely uncommon and scientists state that such a singular event cannot be definitively tied to climate change.

This alarming sprialing light was photographed over Norway on December 9, 2009. Source: http://www.vg.no/

Upon first glance, many would think the image is simply a creation of an eager photoshop student, but the reports have been validated by hundreds of people who saw the same object.  Video clips have emerged to further substantiate the still images.

This alarming sprialing light was photographed over Norway on December 9, 2009.

It is believed that the spiral was caused by a malfunctioning Russian rocket that was launched from a submarine.  Military experts state that the spiraling nature of the light is characteristic of a rocket-propelled object that is not functioning as planned.

This image shows the aftermath of the strange spiralling light that was spotted over Norway on December 9, 2009. The wispy white trail supports the theory that the light was caused by a malfunctioning rocket.

SpaceWeather.com reports that a “no-fly” order was issued for the area on December 9th which would correspond to the period in which the Russian military may have been testing an inter-continental ballistic missile.

File image of a land-based mobile Russian inter-continental balistic missile (ICBM).

This explanation has not been confirmed by the Russian government, although it seems the most plausible given the images and video clips that have emerged.  Regardless of the cause, one thing is certain:  it caused quite an alarm not only for Norwegian residents, but people around the world.

Update [12/10/09:  08:15]:

The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed the Russian Navy launched a Bulava ballistic missile on December 9, but will not officially confirm the missile as the cause of the spiral lights seen over Norway.

File: The Russian submarine Dmitry Donskoi launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on the morning of December 9, 2009.

The Russian Navy confirmed the missile was fired from the “Dmitry Donskoi” nuclear submarine (shown above), but would not confirm the submarine’s location at the time of launch.

Snow blankets a stretch of the Great Wall of China in this file photo. Chinese Government officials have claimed recent successes in seeding clouds to produce snowfall in and around Beijing as a means of alleviating drought.

While the seeding efforts were localized to the Beijing region, snowfall was reported in several provinces, including Liaoning,Jilin and Hebei.  Chinese media reports government officials as hailing the efforts as a success.  “We wont miss any opportunity of artificial precipitation since Beijing is suffering from the lingering drought,” the report quoted Zhang Qiang, head of the Beijing Weather Modification Office, as saying.

This effort comes on the heals of other claims of weather modification successes.  Moscow recently declared it would enjoy a winter without snow, as cloud seeding efforts were underway aimed at forming precipitation outside of city limits.  It is hoped that such efforts would sap the clouds of significant moisture before the clouds moved over Moscow, thus reducing the headaches caused by Moscow’s traditionally heavy urban snowfall.

Cloud seeding efforts aimed at producing precipitation has had a long, checkered history around the world.  While China is employing these efforts to alleviate a substantial drought, other similar precipitation-inducing efforts have been attempted as a means of weakening hurricanes, causing precipitation to fall earlier or outside of a given region, and enhancing snowfall on ski slopes.

This is not the first time the state-run media has made such a claim.  In 2008, the Chinese government openly acknowledged weather modification efforts aimed at reducing smog pollution before and during the Olympic Games.  While the smog was significantly reduced during the games, such results could not be specifically tied to the weather modification efforts, as other smog-reduction efforts were simultaneously employed, such as substantially reducing vehicular traffic in the city.

More recently, China induced snowfall in a similar manner last winter, resulting in highway closures and stranding of thousands of travelers.

Cloud Streets photographed over the Gulf of Mexico on October 18, 2009. This display is a prominent example of organized rows of cumulus clouds known as "cloud streets." Image Source: NASA MODIS

Causes:

The best setup for cloud streets is when the lowest levels of the atmosphere – the layer closest to the ground – is unstable.  A layer of air is unstable when the lowest levels of it are warmer than the air immediately above.  This difference in temperature causes the lowest levels to want to rise.  Think of the steam that rises out of a pot of boiling water.  When this warmer air rises, it cools and the moisture within it condenses into cloud droplets.  This is the same process that forms all clouds.

This image of cloud streets is a particularly poignant example of how well-defined the boundary can be between the rising motions (forming the clouds) and the sinking motion (clear air). This image shows cloud streets as viewed from a plane flying just above the unstable air and within the inversion layer.

The difference that enables cloud streets to form is that this unstable layer is covered by a stable layer of air, sometimes called an inversion.  This stable air is essentially a layer that is slightly warmer than the air at the surface and as such, does not allow the unstable surface air to rise through it.  This is like having a lid on the pan of boiling water.  As such, the rising motion generated by the lower unstable layer is capped and is prevented from rising higher.  The rising air then spreads out horizontally and cools.  As it cools and becomes cooler than the environment, that air then begins to sink.  This sinking air is what causes the clear air rows between the clouds.

The formation of cloud streets begins with a low-level unstable layer of air (shown by red) that rises, cools, and condenses to form clouds. This air then cools and descends (blue), generating the alternating rows of clear air.

This cycle of rising and sinking air creates a small “rotor” whereby some air rises and condenses into rows of clouds and other air sinks, generating the alternating rows of clear air. The wind at the surface generally flows parallel to the ’streets’, as shown by the yellow arrow above.

Locations:

One of the most frequent locations where cloud streets are seen is over open water.  Particularly when cold air invades land, such as over continental land masses in the fall months, this cooler air flows off the coast and over much warmer ocean waters.

Cloud Streets form over the Bering Sea as cold air flows from over the snow-covered continental surface (white land mass) and over open ocean waters. The open ocean waters warm the air from beneath, causing rising motion that cools the air, condenses the water droplets, and forms clouds. Image Source: NASA MODIS.

When the cool air flows over the warm ocean waters, the air is warmed from beneath, causing it to rise.  As the air rises, it runs into the inversion layer – the cap – and is forced back down.  This cyclical motion causes the rows to form as evidenced by several images of cloud streets forming over the Gulf of Mexico or the open ocean south of Alaska during the fall months.

Cloud streets off the coast of Alaska. As this image displays, cloud streets often form when cold air flows off of a land mass and over warmer ocean waters. In this image, the wind flow from north to south causes cold air over land to flow over warm ocean waters, generating lift. Image Source: NASA MODIS

Significance:

Cloud streets can be significant not just for their majestic beauty as viewed from either the surface of the earth or from hundreds of miles above the surface via satellites or other spacecraft.

Cloud streets can also provide a very visual depiction of locations of rising air versus sinking air.  This visual cue can be useful for airline pilots who need to be aware of the rising/sinking motions within unstable air masses.  Additionally, recreational pilots can use the visual cues generated by cloud streets to maintain lift for many miles.  When glider pilots can see where the rising motion is located, they can often ride these streams of thermal currents for miles, all the while continuing to rise.

Snow blankets the center of Moscow in this file photo from 2007. If the mayor of Moscow has his way, the city will look much different this winter.

The mayor of Moscow has pledged his full support to a plan to seed the clouds upwind from Moscow as a means of encouraging precipitation to fall from the clouds before they reach Moscow.  It is his hope that the clouds that then blanket the city will not result in the usual heavy winter snowfalls Moscow is so well known for.

The Mayor is planning to spend several million dollars to pay the Russian Air Force to fly over the city and spray a fine mist of particulate matter into the clouds.  The hope is that the particles that are sprayed will cause moisture to quickly condense on them, forming small cloud droplets or snowflakes much sooner than they would normally form.  This “fast-forwaring” of the snow-making process would cause the clouds to create snow that would then fall to the ground before the clouds ever arrived in Moscow.  The mayor contends such efforts would save the city millions in snow-removal costs and the quality of life improvement would be immeasurable.

Just last week, a mysterious cloud formation was spotted over Moscow.  Referred to as a “halo cloud” or a “UFO cloud,” the rare formation likely had a much more innocuous title as a “hole punch cloud.”  The cloud was filmed and the images quickly spread across the web, creating quite a buzz about its cause.  As reported earlier by MeteorologyNews.com, the cloud was likely a simple hole punch cloud, whose origins are somewhat mysterious, although several theories support the notion that such clouds form when a cloud is comprised of ice crystals and super-cooled water droplets that are disturbed.  The disturbance causes a quick transformation of the super-cooled droplets into ice which clings to existing ice particles and floats to the ground or sublimates.  The quick dissipation of the water droplets creates a void, or hole.

It thus seems reasonable that the disturbance that caused last week’s hole punch cloud could reasonably be assumed to have been efforts by the Russian Air Force to test out its most recent cloud-seeding efforts in anticipation of the upcoming winter.  The Russian military has offered no confirmation of such suspicion.

It was recently reported that Mayor Yury Luzhkov is no stranger to such grand efforts to manipulate nature. In 2007, the Russian government made a similar attempt at cloud seeding by dropping cement dust into clouds.  But that attempt led to disastrous results:  one bag of cement dust failed to dissipate in the cloud, instead falling to earth and crashing through the roof of a house.  In 2002, he led a project to reverse the flow of the River Ob in Siberia in an effort to help irrigate the region’s agricultural zones.  Scientists have responded that such efforts were impractical, although such failures have not stopped Luzhkov from trying his hand at further manipulations of mother nature.

Such cloud seeding efforts are not new.  Going back to World War II, many countries have attempted to seed the clouds to either generate precipitation where it was needed or to prevent precipitation where it is unwanted.  As recently as early 2008, it was rumored that the Chinese government was planning such weather modification efforts as a means of scouring the air of smog prior to the Olympic Games, as well as ensuring rain-free days for outdoor sporting events.  It is unclear if such efforts were employed or if they were successful.

A "hole punch cloud" as seen over Moscow last week. Such clouds are rare and awe-inspiring as their cause is still somewhat mysterious.

Hole punch clouds are often attention-grabbers, as they are relatively rare.  When they do form, they tend to persist and are large enough to be seen for miles around.

The foundation of a hole punch cloud is traditionally a mid- or high-altitude cloud type such as cirrus or cirro-stratus.  Such clouds generally form above 20,000 feet or so in the atmosphere.  The National Weather Service has explained that such clouds are frequently composed of both ice crystals and super-cooled water droplets – water that is below the freezing temperature but still exists in liquid form.  When such a delicate balance occurs, only a slight disruption of this delicate balance may lead to a striking result.

This hole punch cloud is a particularly vibrant example of both the foundational cloud form and the evaporation of the water droplets in the surrounding environment. Some hold punch clouds are even referred to as "crop circles in the sky."

A hole punch cloud photographed over Alabama in 2003. Photo Source: Gary Beeler, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service Mobile, Alabama.

Frequently, the ice crystals may slowly grow and expand at the expense of the liquid droplets.  But when the balance is disrupted, the droplets may freeze instantly and thus permit the liquid droplets in the environment to evaporate, resulting in a “hole” in the cloud.

Another hole punch cloud, this one photographed over Colorado in 2007. Photo source: Colorado Uerlings: http://www.neatorama.com

It is believed that a cloud may be disrupted in this manner when a a jet flies through the thin cloud layer.  Such a disruption may spur the quick freezing of liquid droplets and evaporation of other droplets.  This would create the void in the space in which the jet passed through the layer.

While the source of hole punch clouds may be somewhat uncertain, they are certain to cause quite a vigorous discussion.

UPDATE (10/19/09):  The cause of the Moscow hole punch cloud may have been discovered:  cloud seeding.  See Moscow Testing Cloud Seeding; Promises Winter Without Snow.

Home heating oil is pumped into a home in New England. Home heating costs are expected to drop this winter, according to new government estimates.

According to newly-released government estimates, Americans should enjoy a decrease in home heating costs this winter.  The average home heating bill should total around $960 – a decrease of approximately eight percent over last year.

The combination of lower oil prices and a forecast of a slightly milder winter have combined for the favorable forecast, according to government forecasters.

The largest expenditure decreases are in households using natural gas and propane, projected at 12 and 14 percent, respectively.  Projected electricity and heating oil expenditures decline by 2 percent.

Weather Forecasts

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration compiles long-term seasonal forecasts several times each year.  Frequently, one of their most viewed products is the winter forecast.  In estimating the impact of winter weather on residents of the United States, NOAA compiles a statistic known as “heating degree days”.  This statistic quantifies the impact of weather on heating costs.  The most recent projection of heating degree-days, the Lower-48 States are forecast to be 1 percent warmer this winter compared with last winter and 1 percent milder than the 30-year average (1971-2000). However, heating degree-day projections vary widely between regions.  For example, the Midwest, a major market for propane and natural gas, is projected to be about 4 percent warmer than last winter, while the West is projected to be about 4 percent colder.

Energy Costs

The new government report also indicates the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil should average about $70 per barrel this winter (October-March), a $19 increase over last winter.  The forecast for average WTI prices rises gradually to about $75 per barrel by December 2010 as U.S. and world economic conditions improve.

Uncertainty

As always, both the long-term weather forecasts and energy markets contain a fair amount of uncertainty.  The El Nino (warming of the Pacific Ocean surface waters) may complicate the weather forecast.  Further, while energy prices have fluctuated, the US is expected to start the winter season with the highest natural gas reserves on record.  This may soften the impact of any sudden upticks in oil prices.

For more information on the government outlook, see the Energy Information Administration’s Short Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook report.

Turbulent motions between differing air masses create undulating clouds as seen over rural Kansas in the early morning hours of April 28, 2006. Meteorologists are proposing these clouds be designated as the first new cloud type to be named in over 50 years: Undulus Asperatus.

The Cloud Appreciation Society has designated the clouds as “Undulus Asperatus” or alternatively, “Undulatus Asperatus.”  The Latin term translates loosely as “turbulent undulation.”  Such clouds are relatively rare, but have been photographed in several areas around the world.

Turbulent motions between differing air masses create undulating clouds as seen over rural Kansas in the early morning hours of April 28, 2006. Meteorologists are proposing these clouds be designated as the first new cloud type to be named in over 50 years: Undulus Asperatus.

The ominous-looking clouds have been particularly common in the Plains states of the United States, often during the morning or midday hours following convective thunderstorm activity.  These clouds are not considered a precursor to severe weather, rather appear to form following rain or thunderstorm activity.

Jane Wiggins of Cedar Rapids, Iowa recently captured several spectacular images of the new cloud type as viewed from a downtown office building.  Several of her images have recently been published by National Geographic Magazine – an honor which Wiggins does not take lightly.

This turbulently undulating cloud photographed over Cedar Rapids Iowa may soon be designated as the first new cloud type named in over 50 years: Undulus Asperatus. Source: Jane Wiggins

This turbulently undulating cloud photographed over Cedar Rapids Iowa may soon be designated as the first new cloud type named in over 50 years: Undulus Asperatus. Source: Jane Wiggins

“It is a bit like looking at the surface of a choppy sea from below,” said Gavin Pretor-Pinney, founder of the Cloud Appreciation Society, who first identified the asperatus cloud from photographs that were being sent in by members of the society.

“We try to identify and classify all of the images of clouds we get in, but there were some that just didn’t seem to fit in any of the other categories, so I began to think it might be a unique type of cloud.

This turbulently undulating cloud photographed over Cedar Rapids Iowa may soon be designated as the first new cloud type named in over 50 years: Undulus Asperatus. Source: Jane Wiggins

“The underside of the clouds are quite rough and choppy. It looks very stormy, but some of the reports we have been getting suggest that they tend to break up without actually turning into a storm.”

The Royal Meteorological Society is now gathering detailed weather data for the days and locations where the asperatus clouds have been seen in an attempt to understand exactly what is causing them.

A heat burst is a very rare event that occurs only occasionally as a thunderstorm decays.  When thunderstorms are growing, they draw warm, moist air up and into the cloud where moisture condenses and falls out on the other side.  But when a thunderstorm surpasses maturity and a lot of moist air is held high in the cloud, it begins to drop as the thunderstorm loses its updraft.  As this heavy, rain-cooled air begins to fall, it compresses due to higher pressure at the surface.  As the air compresses, it heats up (think of pumping air into a tire and the tire heats up).  This heating can be substantial and is reflected in surface temperature readings when a heat burst impacts the ground.

The evolution of a heat burst begins with a mature thunderstorm (left). As the thunderstorm matures, the upward movement of warm, moist air begins to cease and the downdraft begins to accellerate. As the thunderstorm loses upward momentum, the downward movement of moist air causes compression and heating, resulting in damaging winds at the surface.

The other headline result of a heat burst is the strong wind.  As the air plummets from beneath the thunderstorm and hits the ground, it has no where to go except outward.  In much of the same dynamic principle as a thunderstorm microburst, the air crashes into the ground and spreads out in all directions, frequently reaching winds that exceed hurricane strength.

Since heat bursts are closely associated with decaying thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms are fed by warm, moist air that rises in response to solar heating.  When the sun sets and the surface heating ceases, many thunderstorms lose their primary energy source.  Once this source is absent, many thunderstorms begin to decay.  Since heat bursts are closely related to this decay process, it follows that most heat bursts occur at nighttime.

The recent heat burst in Oklahoma City occurred at 1am on May 13th.  The temperature soared to over 90 degrees as wind speeds topped 55 mph.  Damage was widespread with small trees and limbs reported down throughout the city.

Dramatic heat bursts have occurred throughout the plains states.  Kearney, Nebraska was impacted by a heat burst in on June 20, 2006 when the temperature went from 70 to 93 in minutes overnight and wind speeds topped 60 miles per hour.

More recently, on August 3rd, 2008, a heat burst in Sioux Falls, SD forced air downward in such a dramatic fasion that the wind speeds over 50 miles per hour and the temperature jumped from 70 to 101 in less than 20 minutes.

The 2008-2009 La Niña has drawn to a close. Image indicates sea surface water temperatures (top) and the departure from the average sea surface temperature (bottom). La Niña is indicative of cooler than normal (blue). The lack of a significant temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific indicates to scientists that this year's La Niña has come to an end. Image Source: NOAA

La Niña (Spanish for “the little girl”) is the term used to describe the period when the sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific ocean are cooler than normal. This region of the ocean tends to waiver between periods that are warmer than average (referred to as “El Niño”) and warmer than average – La Niña . In between these extremes are relatively neutral periods where sea surface temperatures are within a degree or two of average. It is this neutral period that the Climate Prediction Center is indicating is now imminent.

The end of the current La Niña indicates that the Pacific Northwest may begin to dry out and the south may return to near-normal rainfall patterns.

La Niña tends to bring nearly opposite effects of El Niño to the United States — wetter than normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest and dryer and warmer than normal conditions across much of the southern tier. The impacts of El Niño and La Niña at these latitudes are most clearly seen in wintertime. In the continental U.S., during El Niño years, temperatures in the winter are warmer than normal in the North Central States, and cooler than normal in the Southeast and the Southwest. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest.

It is unknown precisely when El Niño will return.