MeteorologyNews.com

NOAA Completes US Tsunami Warning System

J Michael — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 14:17:09 +0000

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration has completed the deployment of a tsunami warning system for the US by installing buoys throughout the ocean intended to give advanced warning of an impending tsunami.

NOAA deployed the final two tsunami detection buoys in the South Pacific this week, completing the buoy network and bolstering the U.S. tsunami warning system. This vast network of 39 stations provides coastal communities in the Pacific, Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico with faster and more accurate tsunami warnings.

The buoys are ingenous little contraptions, designed to collect an array of quantitative data on the conditions from each site and relay that information back to central data collection and analysis points: (more…)

Global Warming May Reduce Hurricane Frequency

J Michael — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 22:44:11 +0000

In further research that supports the hypothesis that global warming may reduce damage from hurricanes, NOAA published a preview of upcoming research today (Warmer Ocean Could Reduce Number of Atlantic Hurricane Landfalls). New research indicates that increased ocean temperatures will, as expected, increase wind shear over the oceans which in turn, may reduce the number of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes:

A warming global ocean — influencing the winds that shear off the tops of developing storms — could mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States according to new findings by NOAA climate scientists. Furthermore, the relative warming role of the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans is important for determining Atlantic hurricane activity. (more…)

NASA to Develop Hurricane Strength Monitor

J Michael — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 13:23:00 +0000

By developing a network of surface sensors to monitor hurricane intensity over the northern Pacific Ocean, NASA hopes to gain a higher resolution of data on hurricane strength in the area. The network will reportedly incorporate components of the National Lightning Detection Network as lightning is an indicator of the strength of convection, thus the intensity of the entire system:

The sensors are able to monitor lightning strikes from a distance of thousands of miles, allowing scientists to investigate with greater accuracy how lightning produced within a hurricane’s eyewall is tied to the changing strength of that hurricane.

“There are very few observing systems that offer a broad view of a storm over the open ocean where hurricanes tend to build or lose strength,” said study lead author Kirt Squires. “This development is essential to improving the way meteorologists can look at a growing storm to judge just how harsh it will be.”

Researchers are planning on publicizing this new project in American Meteorological Society journal Monthly Weather Review.

La Nina is Returning

J Michael — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 20:32:59 +0000

LaNina, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific ocean waters, appears to be looming. While meteorologists haven’t yet designated it as such, it appears that La Nina is returning:

“While we can’t officially call it a La Nina yet, we expect that this pattern will continue to develop during the next three months, meeting the NOAA definition for a La Nina event later this year,” said Mike Halpert, acting deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s prediction center. (more…)

Hurricanes Frequent in Cooler Times

J Michael — Thu, 24 May 2007 16:21:56 +0000

The complicated connection between climate dynamics and hurricane strength and frequency continues to get more complex with each piece of research that is released.The latest research, as published in the journal “Nature”, indicates that even during periods when ocean waters were cooler, hurricanes were more frequent.

While this doesn’t directly dispute the popular belief that hurricane frequency increases with warmer ocean waters, it certainly complicates things:
(more…)

2007 Hurricane Season Forecast: Media Frenzy

J Michael — Wed, 21 Mar 2007 22:48:46 +0000

Here we go again…another forecast for an “exceptionally active” hurricane season. Last spring, similar forecasts were touted following the horrific 2005 hurricane season. But what went largely unreported regarding last year’s hurricane season was how quiet it ended up being and how horribly incorrect those forecasts were. Obviously we have yet to know how accurate this year’s forecasts will be; only time will tell. At least a few big names are going on record as forecasting another busier-than-average season. I would imagine this will grab plenty of headlines over the coming days:

The Atlantic hurricane season will be exceptionally active this year, according to a British forecasting group, raising the possibility that killer storms like Hurricane Katrina could again threaten the United States.

London-based forecaster Tropical Storm Risk on Tuesday said the six-month season, which begins on June 1, was expected to bring 17 tropical storms, of which nine will strengthen into hurricanes with winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Four of those are expected to become more destructive “intense” hurricanes, TSR said.

The long-term average for the Atlantic is for 10 storms to form during the hurricane season and for six of those to reach hurricane strength.

The article goes to cite the inaccuracies in last year’s forecasts:

The United States emerged unscathed from the 2006 season after it spawned a below-average nine storms, of which five became hurricanes. Experts had universally — and erroneously — predicted 2006 would be a busy year for Atlantic storms.

I have a feeling any article mentioning hurricane forecasts will still remind us of the horrors of the 2005 season, as this one has:

None of the hurricanes hit the United States, bringing welcome relief to beleaguered residents of the U.S. Gulf Coast, where Katrina killed 1,500 people, swamped New Orleans and caused about $80 billion in damage the year before.

As of 5:39pm EST 03/21/07, the article cited in the opening of this post yields 13 ‘related articles’ results from a google news search. Let’s see how this count mushrooms over the coming hours and days. I only wish we could somehow see how many (or rather, how few) headlines would have been created had this forecast been for minimal activity this hurricane season. I guess the absence of headlines following last year’s remarkably quiet season was a good indicator.

That said, I am in agreement with the overall opinion of a higher-than-average hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures are one of the best indicators of hurricane season trends and appear favorable for hurricane development this season. It is not the above-average forecasts themselves that I question, rather the play these will get in the mainstream media. After all, the planet has a fever, folks! Read much more about Al Gore’s senate testimony via Noel Sheppard’s Newsbusters posts here and here.

Technorati Tags: Hurricanes, 2007 Hurricane Forecast, Tropical Meteorology, Extreme Weather, Al Gore

La Nina Brewing?

J Michael — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 14:09:33 +0000

With last week’s announced “end” to El Nino, it appears as though the cooling trend pendulum is set to swing right across the midpoint over to La Nina:

Officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the official end of a brief and mild El Nino that started last year. That El Nino was credited with partially shutting down last summer’s Atlantic hurricane activity in the midst of what was supposed to be a busy season.

“We’re seeing a shift to the La Nina, it’s clearly in the data,” NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said. La Nina, a cooling of the mid-Pacific equatorial region, has not officially begun because it’s a process with several months with specific temperature thresholds, but the trend is obvious based on satellite and ocean measurement data, he said.

This is sure to spark a flurry of media reports about a disasterous hurricane season in the offing. I wonder if this seasons’ reports will reach the fever pitch of doom heard prior to last year’s hurricane season…the season during which not a single hurricane made landfall on the US.