Home heating oil is pumped into a home in New England. Home heating costs are expected to drop this winter, according to new government estimates.

According to newly-released government estimates, Americans should enjoy a decrease in home heating costs this winter.  The average home heating bill should total around $960 – a decrease of approximately eight percent over last year.

The combination of lower oil prices and a forecast of a slightly milder winter have combined for the favorable forecast, according to government forecasters.

The largest expenditure decreases are in households using natural gas and propane, projected at 12 and 14 percent, respectively.  Projected electricity and heating oil expenditures decline by 2 percent.

Weather Forecasts

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration compiles long-term seasonal forecasts several times each year.  Frequently, one of their most viewed products is the winter forecast.  In estimating the impact of winter weather on residents of the United States, NOAA compiles a statistic known as “heating degree days”.  This statistic quantifies the impact of weather on heating costs.  The most recent projection of heating degree-days, the Lower-48 States are forecast to be 1 percent warmer this winter compared with last winter and 1 percent milder than the 30-year average (1971-2000). However, heating degree-day projections vary widely between regions.  For example, the Midwest, a major market for propane and natural gas, is projected to be about 4 percent warmer than last winter, while the West is projected to be about 4 percent colder.

Energy Costs

The new government report also indicates the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil should average about $70 per barrel this winter (October-March), a $19 increase over last winter.  The forecast for average WTI prices rises gradually to about $75 per barrel by December 2010 as U.S. and world economic conditions improve.

Uncertainty

As always, both the long-term weather forecasts and energy markets contain a fair amount of uncertainty.  The El Nino (warming of the Pacific Ocean surface waters) may complicate the weather forecast.  Further, while energy prices have fluctuated, the US is expected to start the winter season with the highest natural gas reserves on record.  This may soften the impact of any sudden upticks in oil prices.

For more information on the government outlook, see the Energy Information Administration’s Short Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook report.

The 2008-2009 La Niña has drawn to a close. Image indicates sea surface water temperatures (top) and the departure from the average sea surface temperature (bottom). La Niña is indicative of cooler than normal (blue). The lack of a significant temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific indicates to scientists that this year's La Niña has come to an end. Image Source: NOAA

La Niña (Spanish for “the little girl”) is the term used to describe the period when the sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific ocean are cooler than normal. This region of the ocean tends to waiver between periods that are warmer than average (referred to as “El Niño”) and warmer than average – La Niña . In between these extremes are relatively neutral periods where sea surface temperatures are within a degree or two of average. It is this neutral period that the Climate Prediction Center is indicating is now imminent.

The end of the current La Niña indicates that the Pacific Northwest may begin to dry out and the south may return to near-normal rainfall patterns.

La Niña tends to bring nearly opposite effects of El Niño to the United States — wetter than normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest and dryer and warmer than normal conditions across much of the southern tier. The impacts of El Niño and La Niña at these latitudes are most clearly seen in wintertime. In the continental U.S., during El Niño years, temperatures in the winter are warmer than normal in the North Central States, and cooler than normal in the Southeast and the Southwest. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest.

It is unknown precisely when El Niño will return.

The American Groundhog - part of an American weather forecasting tradition for decades.

This morning, Punxsatawney Phil emerged from his den and saw his shadow, indicating 6 more weeks of winter are in store.  The nation’s most famous groundhog emerged just after dawn in front of about 13,000 witnesses, many dressed in black-and-gold to celebrate the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Super Bowl victory the night before.

Ben Hughes, handler of the weather-predicting groundhog Punxsutawney Phil, holds Phil in the air after removing him from his stump at Gobbler's Knob on Groundhog Day, Monday, Feb. 2, 2009, in Punxsutawney, Pa. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

As legend tells it, if the groundhog emerges from its burrow and fails to see its shadow because the sky is cloudy, winter will soon come to an end. Alternatively, if it is sunny and the groundhog sees its shadow, the groundhog will supposedly retreat into its burrow, and winter will continue for six more weeks.

The annual ritual takes place on Gobbler’s Knob, a tiny hill in Punxsutawney, a borough of about 6,100 residents some 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

More interesting facts about America’s favorite prognosticator:

• Groundhog Day has been celebrated since 1887. According to tradition, if a groundhog sees its shadow upon emerging from its burrow that day, there will be six more weeks of winter.  If not, spring is on its way.
• The groundhog, or woodchuck, is one of 14 species of marmots. They are common in the northeastern and central United States.
• Weighing 4 pounds to 14 pounds and reaching about 2 feet in length, groundhogs can move about 700 pounds of dirt when digging a burrow for winter hibernation.
• The largest Groundhog Day celebration is in Punxsutawney, Pa., which draws crowds of up to 40,000 people to Gobbler’s Knob every Feb. 2 to watch Punxsutawney Phil do his thing.
• City residents claim the groundhog has never been wrong, although few empirical studies have supported the claim.
• About 90 percent of the time, Phil sees his shadow.
• According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, Phil has been making predictions for more than 120 years now, buoyed by sips of “the elixir of life.”

For more information on Groundhog Day or to view Phil’s prediction, go to www.groundhog.org.

First published in 1792, the almanac has been in continuous production ever since, although avoiding some close calls.  During World War II, a German spy was apprehended in New York with a copy of the almanac in his possession.  The US government then requested limited information to be published so the almanac stopped publishing “forecasts” and instead only “weather indications” for 1943-1945.

In terms of weather forecasting, the almanac touts an 80% accuracy rating, according to its editor.  This success rate, however, is a bit dubious when one examines their recent forecasts.  For instance, the almanac predicted that 2008 would be the hottest year in a century, which it was not; instead, 2008 came in at about 10th place. Others have referred to the almanac as simply a “windy guess.”  Still other studies have qualitatively examined the accuracy of the 2005 edition and found the almanac to be a bit dubious in its self-applied “80% accuracy” rating:

For California, Region 16, a total of 11 precipitation forecasts and 23 temperature forecasts were evaluated.  Of the precipitation cases 27% were correct, 36% were quantitatively wrong and the remaining 36% had the incorrect sign.  The temperatures for region 16 were only correct 13% of the time, had the wrong sign in 22% of the cases, were quantitatively wrong 39% of the time and were partially correct 26% of the time.  Overall the California forecasts were correct only 23% of the time.

Their own description of their weather forecasting system can be found on their website as follows:

Our weather forecasts are determined by the use of a secret formula (devised in 1792 by the founder of this Almanac, Robert B. Thomas), enhanced by the most modern scientific calculations based on solar activity, particularly sunspot cycles. We also analyze weather records for particular locales. We believe nothing in the universe occurs haphazardly; there is a cause-and-effect pattern to all phenomena, including weather. It follows, therefore, that we believe weather is predictable.

One recent review (Full of facts and folklore, the Old Farmer’s Almanac is mostly just fun) highlights some of the quirks that make the almanac a favorite for readers who enjoy folklore:

Pick a random day in 2009, for example, such as July 14. Youll discover that its Bastille Day, armadillos are supposed to be mating, and sunset (in Ventura) will occur at 8:10 p.m.

How, you ask, is this information useful?

Well, if youre a mating armadillo planning a Tuesday beach wedding, you can time your vows to happen right at sunset, and you shouldnt invite any unruly French relatives to the reception.

The almanac also seeks to highlight trends it predicts will be prevalent in the upcoming year:

In 2009, for example, according to almanac research, look for more man-bags with silver or brass hardware and snake or alligator fabrics for guys lugging around laptops. And small is big; were gravitating toward tiny dogs, miniature vegetables, microlending and mini vacations.

The almanac also supports an avid online community (http://www.almanac.com) that mimics the hard-copy content and supplements it with discussion forums, blogs, and other individualized, localized tools for readers to enjoy.

A later article posted on MeteorologyNews.com will highlight the main features of the alamanc’s 2009 forecast which can then be verified against the realities of 2009 a year from now.

Established in 1982, the channel initially attracted an audience of devoted meteorology enthusiasts. But it has gained a broader following by showing “docudramas” such as Storm Stories which recreate the exploits of people hit by extreme weather. It reaches 96m households.

A “broader” audience? Perhaps. A smaller audience after losing true weather enthusiasts and meteorologists? Likely. They had a solid schedule that repeated every hour, including the local forecasts on the 8s. That is about the only remnant that has remained, with most live programming having been replaced by sensationalistic, tabloid-style programming instead of current weather analysis and forecast discussions.

A round-the-clock American weather forecasting channel, renowned for its intrepid rain-drenched reporters standing in the eye of hurricanes, is up for sale with an estimated price tag of $5bn (£2.5bn).

The Weather Channel has been put on the block by its parent company Landmark Communications, which is owned by the Virginia-based Batten family.

Among those reportedly expressing interest are General Electric, Comcast and Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation.

Some 110 meteorologists are employed by the network, which supplies forecasts to 157 newspapers and to on-line portals such as Yahoo and MSNBC. The channel and its offshoots generated $1.75bn (£887m) in revenue last year, with sales even generated by a selection of compact discs of music played during forecasts.

“While we can’t officially call it a La Nina yet, we expect that this pattern will continue to develop during the next three months, meeting the NOAA definition for a La Nina event later this year,” said Mike Halpert, acting deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s prediction center.

La Nina refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific that occur every three to five years.

With La Nina developing, seasonal forecasters expect wetter than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and drier than average conditions in the drought stricken Southwestern United States this fall.

“Nearly all operational dynamical models, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s climate forecast system and many of the statistical models also favor a La Nina event,” said Halpert.

The implications?

With La Nina developing, seasonal forecasters expect wetter than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and drier than average conditions in the drought stricken Southwestern United States this fall.