An iceberg shown in North Bay, Rothera Point, Adelaide Island, Antarctica. Credit: AFP/Pete Bucktrout.

(METEOROLOGYNEWS.com)   Several recent studies have indicated that those who believe global warming is not caused primarily by human activity – often labeled “skeptics” – are gaining ground in convincing the public that global warming fears are not as significant as some claim.  Although many in the scientific community maintain global warming is caused primarily by human activity, a small but growing group of climatologists and other scientists are gaining traction in convincing the public that the debate is not as settled as Al Gore and other global warming alarmists would have them believe.

Recent Polling:  Gallup

A recent Gallup poll illustrates the trend well.  While a majority of Americans still believe global warming is a serious concern, a record-high 41% now say it the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated.  This represents the highest level of public skepticism of the mainstream reporting about global warming in more than a decade of Gallup polling on the subject.

A record-high 41% of Amiercans now say that the mainstream claims regarding Global Warming are exaggerated. Source: GALLUP

The most recent peak in skepticism came around 2004.   The most recent peak of agreement with the mainstream portrayal of the seriousness of global warming corresponded with the 2006 release of Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth.  But the impact of that film appears to have waned while the influence of those expressing doubt about the seriousness of the threat has increased.  The percentage of Americans who now say the media portrayal of the seriousness of global warming is correct or underestimated is actually lower than it was prior to the release of Al Gore’s film.

While Republicans remain the largest proportion of global warming skeptics, the poll indicates that the percentage of Americans who state that news of global warming is exaggerated has increased in all segments of the political spectrum.  The largest increase in party affiliates stating news of global warming is exaggerated came from Independents.  The number of Independents who say the reported seriousness of global warming is exaggerated increased more than 50% in just two years, from 28% in 2007 to 44%just two years later.

While Republicans remain the most skeptical political group regarding claims surrounding global warming, the skepticism of Democrats and Independents has also increased in recent years. Source: GALLUP

The number of Americans who thought global warming is already affecting the planet has also fallen, from 61% in March last year to 53% this year.  And a record high 16% of Americans told Gallup pollsters that they believe the effects of global warming “will never occur.”

The poll results suggest “that the global warming message may have lost some footing with Americans,” Gallup analyst Lydia Saad said.

“Americans generally believe global warming is real … (but) most Americans do not view the issue in the same dire terms as the many prominent leaders advancing global warming as an issue,” she said.

The Gallup poll was conducted March 5-8, 2009 via telephone interviews with 1,012 national adults, aged 18 or older.  For the full results of the poll and the survey methods, see the Gallup Poll:  “Increased Number Think Global Warming is “Exaggerated“.

Rasmussen Reports

Another recent poll supports the Gallup conclusions that the American public is growing wary of global warming fears.  The Rasmussen poll indicates that a majority of U.S. voters – 54% – say the news media make global warming appear worse than it really is. Only 21% say the media present an accurate picture.

Common to the Gallup poll concerning the reporting of global warming concerns, Rasmussen found Republicans are more critical than Democrats.

Seventy-nine percent of GOP voters say the media paints a darker picture of global warming that the reality merits, and 63% of voters not affiliated with either party agree. Democrats, however, are much more closely divided: 27% say the media make it look worse than it is, 22% better, and 34% say the media present an accurate picture.

While Al Gore is often touted as the fact of the global warming movement, only 36% of voters believe he knows what he’s talking about when it comes to the environment and global warming.

Voters appear to be shying away from the idea promoted by Gore and others that human activity is the cause of global warming and are viewing it instead more as the result of long-term natural planetary trends.

An earlier Rasmussen Reports poll indicated similar erosion of the global warming alarmist viewpoint.  In the January poll, 44% of U.S. voters said long-term planetary trends are the cause of global warming, compared to 41% who blame it on human activity.

Political Climate

While skeptics appear to be gaining ground in public opinion, they appear to be losing any foothold they may have once had in Washington.  With the Obama administration pledging to fight global warming with greater funding and manpower than any previous administration, the upcoming year may be a difficult one for skeptics.

The National Academy of Sciences and many major scientific bodies believe that global warming is caused primarily by human activity – particularly, carbon emissions.  However, the current economic climate may force the global warming issue to the back burner.  As is often the case, both public opinion and legislators’ attention to environmental issues declines when more pressing issues take center stage.  The same occurred during the Cold War in the 1980s, the period following 9/11, and more recently, the financial system meltdown.

Still, the alarmist movement is strong.  Already, House Energy and Commerce Chairman John Dingell (D-Mich.) has lost his gavel, in part because he was perceived as weak on tackling the issue of global warming.

As reported recently by the Politico, while the Obama administration pledges more aggressive action to combat what it sees as the primary cause of global warming – human activity – a growing lobby of scientists who doubt that focus may gain enough strength to at least delay any significant action by the Obama administration.  The Obama administration’s primary focus is on cap-and-trade legislation – the very type of legislation that may be less favored in rough economic times, as the legislation could impose significant increased costs to businesses which are attempting to regain footing in the midst of a recession.

Launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) satellite from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California on February 24, 2009 (Credit: NASA)

(Updated 10:14am ET)

A new $273 million satellite designed to detect atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and in turn, aid in scientists’ understanding of the human impact on this atmospheric gas, has been lost in space.  It was launched on Tuesday morning from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

This catastrophic loss comes on the heels of another recent space disaster – a collision between Russian and US satellites miles above the earth on February 11th.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory satellite didn’t reach orbit after its 1:51 a.m. local time launch because the “payload fairing” didn’t separate, NASA said in a statement. The fairing is a protective cover that surrounds the top of the satellite during launch and then is intended to separate from the main vehicle so the satellite can detach from its rocket boosters and enter regular orbit.  For an unknown reason, the fairing failed to separate at the required time.  The added weight of the fairing remaining attached prevented the rocket from obtaining the necessary elevation to reach stable orbit.

The spacecraft did not reach orbit and landed in the Pacific Ocean near Antarctica, said John Brunschwyler, the program manager for the Taurus XL.

“If it’s lost, it’s disappointing because it was giving us novel information to help us move our understanding forward on global warming,” said Alan O’Neill, science director of the Reading, U.K.-based Centre for Earth Observation.

An artist's conception of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO). (Credit: NASA)

The lost satellite was NASA’s first spacecraft dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide.  Carbon dioxide is the leading human-produced greenhouse gas believed to have a contribution to changes in Earth’s climate.  It was hoped that this satellite would further refine scientists’ understanding of how much carbon dioxide is released by humans and how the atmosphere responds to this increase.

“The Orbiting Carbon Observatory’s carbon dioxide measurements will be pivotal in advancing our knowledge of virtually all Earth system land, atmosphere, and ocean processes,” said Michael Freilich, director of NASA’s Earth Science Division in Washington. ”They will play crucial roles in refining our knowledge of climate forcings and Earth’s response processes.”

The extent of global sea ice and how it compares to the 30-year average is shown. This graph displays the nearly-30 year data set since record-keeping began. Source: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu

While the retreat of ice at the Earth’s poles has been visible and effective evidence in support claims of catastrophic climate change, global sea ice has been on the rebound in recent months.  Sea ice has quickly re-taken previously thawed regions of the ocean at both ends of the globe, according to satellite observations recently published by NOAA’s National Snow and Ice Data Center.

While global sea ice extent has only been measured with high resolution since 1979, the recent increase in sea ice coverage now puts the start of 2009 in the same place as the year when records started:  1979.  While the extent of sea ice in the northern hemisphere is currently slightly below the 30-year mean, the coverage in the southern hemisphere exceeds the thirty-year mean by approximately 500,000 square kilometers.  While some scientists argue this is a clear and obvious sign of catastrophic global warming, others have urged restraint.  They argue this data cannot be reliably compared to older historical records that had less resolution and reliability.

The North Pole

Extent of Arctic Sea Ice as of January, 2009. This graph displays the ordinary seasonal (winter) increase in sea ice coverage in the northern hemisphere. (Image Credit: NSIDC)

Early in the northern hemisphere summer, the rate of sea ice melt painted a grim picture of the upcoming winter season.  Some even predicted that there would be enough open water that one could sail to the north pole.  Such predictions failed when the seasonal sea ice minimum was reached on September 12, 2008 and the arctic was still covered by 1.74 million square miles of ice.  Since mid-September, arctic sea ice has been growing in response to the normal seasonal cooling.

While the rate of ice growth has since slowed from the near-record rates of October and November, the NSIDC data points to a logical conclusion:  The polar ice is simply running out of physical room to expand as the surface area of open water shrinks as ice fills it.  While the rate has slowed over the last month, the rapid early season growth meant that the arctic has experienced a greater extent of sea ice than most of the 2007-08 winter season.  The recent slowing in growth now puts this season roughly on par with last year at this time with roughly 13 million square kilometers of ice covering the region.

The South Pole

For approximately 9 of the last 12 months, the extent of sea ice covering the South Pole has been equal to or greater the 30-year average.  The southern hemisphere is now in the midst of the summer season and thus sea ice coverage is in a normal but temporary rapid decline.  However, even during this period of normal melting, the Antarctic sea ice still remains more expansive than the 30-year average, according to data from the Arctic Climate Research Center at the University of Illinois.

Antarctic sea ice still remains more expansive than the 30-year average, according to data from the Arctic Climate Research Center from the University of Illinois.

Not only has this season’s ice coverage exceeded the 30-year average, the extent of sea ice over Antarctica has actually been steadily growing over the last 20 years.  While some may see this as evidence in direct opposition to global warming trends, NASA-funded research from 2005 indicates that expanding Antarctic ice may actually be proof positive of such warming (Warmer air may cause increased antarctic sea ice cover).  “Most people have heard of climate change and how rising air temperatures are melting glaciers and sea ice in the Arctic,” said Dylan C. Powell, lead author of the paper and a doctoral candidate at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. “However, findings from our simulations suggest a counterintuitive phenomenon. Some of the melt in the Arctic may be balanced by increases in sea ice volume in the Antarctic.”

Climate Change Models

While much of the northern hemisphere sea ice melting has been relatively well-handled by global climate models, the antarctic ice expansion has been under-resolved by the models.  Such disparities raise several questions concerning the reliability of such computer models of the climate.  Such disparity would not have been significant in the early days of computer climate modelling, as such models were only seen as one indication of potential trends.  Today, however, as climate change is bringing about legislative and regulatory action, the accuracy and reliability of model output is increasingly important.  While the 3o-year spans examined by the satellite data of both the northern and southern hemisphere is insightful in its detail and short-term trend indications, it is worth noting what a short span of time these data represent in the context of geologic time.

Wind turbines such as these along the Buffalo Ridge in rural southwest Minnesota (2004) may alter large-scale wind flow over land.

Wind turbines are quickly becoming the favorite green energy source of many nations the world over as they are often considered to be virtually zero-impact.  But current research indicates wind turbines may not be as green as once thought.

Wind turbines do not block rivers or inhibit migratory species as hydroelectric dams do.  They do not emit greenhouse gasses or exhaust our dwindling supplies of nonrenewable resources such as oil or coal.  Wind turbines  generate seemingly unlimited, clean energy.  While some research has indicated wind turbines may have harmful effects on birds or other unintended consequences on the environment, most of these have been generally excused as minimal or otherwise disputed compared to the relative benefits of wind energy.  But a team of researchers from the University of Maryland have found that large-scale use of wind turbines as a power source may have an impact on our environment directly opposite that which they purport to minimize:  Climate change.

Altering air flow and wind patterns

Conservative estimates are that it would take at least a quarter-million wind turbines to meet the United States’ energy needs.  Installation of such an enormous array of wind turbines would have a profound impact on the atmospheric wind flow over the surface of the United States and perhaps even other nations.

Scientists Daniel Barrie and Daniel Kirk-Davidoff of the University of Maryland have shown that installation of a massive wind farm covering the bulk of the central United States into central Canada would effectively “steal” energy from the atmosphere.  As anyone who has studied basic physics may recall, in a closed system such as the Earth’s atmosphere, energy is conserved, that is, it cannot be created or destroyed.  As air flows through the blades of a gigantic, 300-foot wind turbine tower, the wind energy turns the blades.  This energy is robbed from the atmosphere, effectively slowing the wind speed proportionally.  The greater the array of wind turbines, the more energy is removed from the atmospheric flow and the slower the ambient wind will travel.  Slowing wind speeds by 5 or 6 miles per hour – while it sounds negligible, could have significant impacts on the large-scale atmospheric flow and yield consequences we do not yet understand.

Altering Ocean Currents

An offshore wind farm such as this one may have profound impacts not only on the air flow, but also on the ocean currents beneath the surface.

In another recent project on the impacts of wind power on our environment, Goran Brostrom of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in Oslo has published research indicating that offshore wind farms, while perhaps less unsightly and intrusive than their land-based counterparts, may have a small yet profound impact on ocean currents in their wake.

When air flows through wind turbine blades, the path that the flow takes is slightly altered.  The net result is that there is turbulence down wind from the turbine blades.  When this turbulence occurs, rather than the ordinary laminar flow, the surface of the ocean is impacted.  This turbulence over the ocean water can cause a phenomenon known as upwelling whereby deeper ocean water is drawn up to the surface as surface water is driven down to replace it.  When the ocean “turns over” in this manner temperature flow within the body of water is altered.  Altering the upwelling patterns of an otherwise undisturbed body of water may have impacts on the currents that naturally exist as part of the large-scale flow.  As with the atmospheric air flow impacts of large-scale wind farms, the overall impact of increased ocean current upwelling is not fully understood.

When a sophisticated science probe failed to return any data about whether pools of melted glacial ice were showing up in the ocean, a NASA researcher turned to a decidedly low-tech solution: a brigade of rubber ducks.

NASA is on the lookout for nearly 100 rubber ducks. These ducks were released in the arctic ice earlier in 2008 in an attempt to track the progression of ice cap melting in the arctic.

Scientists with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in September released the $2 rubber ducks through holes in the ice caps on the western coast of Greenland and hope that the ducks would float along the liquid surface below and eventually surface in the open water, revealing the path of meltwater as it flowed from beneath the ice caps. So far, none of the rubber ducks have been spotted, but NASA is requesting the public remain on the lookout. Each duck is marked with an email address and a little extra incentive for the finder to contact NASA:

NASA is offering a modest prize of $100 to the first person who finds a duck. The ducks have an email address stamped on them, together with the word “reward” in three languages, including Inuit.

The ducks may have become stuck in the ice, followed an unforseen track, or simply gone unoticed in the fast, cold northern ocean currents.

The growing chorus of scientists and prominent policy-makers that oppose the premise of man-made global warming has added another voice:  the Environment Minister of the UK:  Sammy Wilson.  Wilson has been a prominent member of the UK parliament since 2005 and has been controversial all the while.  He has again made headlines on the climate change front by stating that the spending of billions of dollars on attempting to reduce or eliminate carbon emissions is a hoax that is depriving countries – particularly underdeveloped nations of the third world – of vital funds that could be better used to fight AIDS, hunger, and other immediate dangers:

“I think in 20 years’ time we will look back at this whole climate change debate and ask ourselves how on earth were we ever conned into spending the billions of pounds which are going into this without any kind of rigorous examination of the background, the science, the implications of it all. Because there is now a degree of hysteria about it, fairly unformed hysteria I’ve got to say as well.

Wilson argues that the attention and money paid to reducing climate emissions is not only on the path to bankrupt many western societies, but is going to profoundly harm third-world countries that have fewer resources and means to go green:  “what are the problems that face us either locally and internationally. Are those not the things we should be concentrating on?” he asked.

Rather than continue to pay homage to the environmentalist movement, Wilson is urging the public to become more educated and well-informed about climate change:

“I mean I get it in the Assembly all the time and most of the people who shout about climate change have not read one article about climate change, not read one book about climate change, if you asked them to explain how they believe there’s a connection between CO2 emission and the effects which they claim there’s going to be, if you ask them to explain the thought process or the modelling that is required and the assumptions behind that and how tenuous all the connections are, they wouldn’t have a clue.

While Wilson disagrees with the environmentalist movement to reduce carbon emissions as a means of minimizing climate change, Wilson agrees that a reduction in fossil fuel usage may benefit society in a number of other ways:

“I don’t couch those actions in terms of reducing Co2 emissions,” he said. “I don’t care about Co2 emissions to be quite truthful because I don’t think it’s all that important but what I do believe is, and perhaps this is where there can be some convergence, as far as using fuel more efficiently that is good for our economy; that makes us more competitive. If we can save in schools hundreds of thousands on fuel that’s more money being put for books or classroom assistants.

“So yes there are things we can do. If you want to express it terms of carbon neutral, I just express it terms of making the place more efficient, less wasteful and hopefully that will release money to do the proper things that we should be doing.”

Wilson’s recent comments are not a departure from his long-held views that the current attention paid to global warming is misplaced and harmful.  In the past, Wilson has referred to man-made climate change as a”hysterical pseudo-religion“.  While he admits that the climate can and does change, he disputes the premise that this change is primarily caused by human activities, arguing “reasoned debate must replace the scaremongering of the green climate alarmists.”

Natural disasters killed over 220,000 people in 2008, making it one of the most devastating years on record and underlining the need for a global climate deal, the world’s number two reinsurer said Monday.

Although the number of natural disasters was lower than in 2007, the catastrophes that occurred proved to be more destructive in terms of the number of victims and the financial cost of the damage caused, Germany-based Munich Re said in its annual assessment.

The author purports that the number of fatalities in 2008 is “one of the most devatstating years on record.”  This conclusion depends on the definition of a natural disaster.  If one includes pandemics such as the Black Death that culled 15-25% of the world’s population (75-100 million people) in the 14th century, 2008 looks relatively tame.  This year’s 220,000 natural disaster-related fatalities represent roughly 0.003% of the world’s population.

Additionally, this research team has drawn some large-scale conclusions about the number of fatalities being related to man-made climate change, a connection is more tenuous than the figures and article would lead you to believe:

“This continues the long-term trend we have been observing. Climate change has already started and is very probably contributing to increasingly frequent weather extremes and ensuing natural catastrophes,” Munich Re board member Torsten Jeworrek said.

Most devastating in terms of human fatalities was Cyclone Nargis, which lashed Myanmar on May 2-3 to kill more than 135,000 people and leave more than one million homeless.

Furthermore, the second deadliest natural disaster of 2008 is in no way tied to atmospheric phenomena or climate change – it was the Sichuan, China earthquake.  This earthquake represents nearly a third of the total fatalities attributed to natural disasters in 2008:

[A]n earthquake shook China’s Sichuan province, leaving 70,000 dead, 18,000 missing and almost five million homeless, according to official figures, Munich Re said.

Other individual events had relatively small and predictable death tolls in less developed countries that are routinely ravaged by natural disasters:

Around 1,000 people died in a severe cold snap in January in Afghanistan, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan, while 635 perished in August and September in floods in India, Nepal and Bangladesh.  Typhoon Fengshen killed 557 people in China and the Philippines in June, while earthquakes in Pakistan in October left 300 dead.

While not as deadly, many of the most costly disasters of 2008 affected the more developed portions of the world where there exists more vulnerable infrastructure:

Six tropical cyclones also slammed into the southern United States, including Ike which, with insured losses of 10 billion dollars, was the industry’s costliest catastrophe of the year.  In Europe, an intense low-pressure system called Emma caused two billion dollars worth of damage in March, while a storm dubbed Hilal in late May and early June left 1.1 billion dollars’ worth.

The earthquake in Sichuan province was the most expensive overall single catastrophe of 2008, causing around 85 billion dollars worth of damage, helping to make the year the third most expensive on record, Munich Re said.

With 200 billion dollars’ worth of damage, only 2005, when a large number of hurricanes slammed into the southern United States, and 1995, year of the Kobe earthquake in Japan, wreaked more destruction since records began in 1900.

Worldwide tropical storm and hurricane activity was up as well, although there were fewer catastrophic land-falling hurricanes than in some recent years:

The number of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic in 2008 was much higher than the long-term average, and in terms of both the total number of storms and the number of major hurricanes, 2008 was the fourth most severe hurricane season since reliable data have been available, it said.

A warming global ocean — influencing the winds that shear off the tops of developing storms — could mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States according to new findings by NOAA climate scientists. Furthermore, the relative warming role of the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans is important for determining Atlantic hurricane activity.

The article, to be published on January 23 in Geophysical Research Letters, uses observations to show that warming of global sea surface temperatures is associated with a secular, or sustained long-term increase, of vertical wind shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. The increased vertical wind shear coincides with a downward trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes…

This comes on the heals of research earlier this year that demonstrated a correlation between global temperatures and hurricane frequency that indicated that perhaps hurricane frequency is heightened by cooler temperatures (Hurricanes Frequent in Cooler Times).

Technorati Tags: Hurricanes, Global Warming, NOAA, Tropical Meteorology, Extreme Weather

The solar physics community is abuzz this week. No, there haven’t been any great eruptions or solar storms. The source of the excitement is a modest knot of magnetism that popped over the sun’s eastern limb on Dec. 11th, pictured below in a pair of images from the orbiting Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

It may not look like much, but “this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle,” says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

The current minimum may have hit bottom and the end of this lull may be near:

For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000–2003. “Solar minimum is upon us,” he says.

The big question now is, when will the next solar cycle begin?

It could be starting now. New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot,” explains Hathaway. Reversed polarity ” means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. “High-latitude” refers to the sun’s grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun’s equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem: There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun.

Below: Solar Cycle 23 is coming to an end. What’s next? Image credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center.

Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don’t forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones, the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before.

Could it possibly be that polar bears are not as endangered by global climate change as has previously been believed? New research seems to indicate that polar bear populations are thriving in the Arctic, even as the climate warms and ice melts.

A survey of the animals’ numbers in Canada’s eastern Arctic has revealed that they are thriving, not declining, because of mankind’s interference in the environment.

In the Davis Strait area, a 140,000-square kilometre region, the polar bear population has grown from 850 in the mid-1980s to 2,100 today.

“There aren’t just a few more bears. There are a hell of a lot more bears,” said Mitch Taylor, a polar bear biologist who has spent 20 years studying the animals.

His findings back the claims of Inuit hunters who have long claimed that they were seeing more bears.

These claims are not without controversy, however:

Critics claim the government has an agenda to encourage polar bear hunting and keep the animals off the endangered species list.

In small Inuit communities, hunters kill bears that wander too close to human settlements and, in this particular region, they are licensed to kill six polar bears a year.

Polar bear experts said that numbers had increased not because of climate change but due to the efforts of conservationists.

Clearly, much more research in this arena is justified before conclusions related to the endgangered species label and other such policy issues are to be enacted.